The storm and the folly

Well, the saga continues. What is the fate of the chicken-hearted VFR pilot who dared to fly a long cross-country across the continent in November? Still in Paris with very little prospect of moving from this spot during the weekend, at least.

The gap I saw in the TAFs last night has all but disappeared this morning. While Paris will still clear up for a short spell this morning, there now seems to be no flyable corridor out toward the North. The southern route I had planned for today requires that I have altitude up to 6500ft. You need that to clear the R-areas and heights around Nancy and Strasbourg. If you try to swing further south toward Luxeuil, the R-areas are lower, but the heights are higher, so you have to clear 6000 anyway. In practice, to get from France back up to Northern Germany and on to Scanidnavia, you either have to have ceilings above 7500ft to fly east northeast, or clear weather (min 3500) over Brussels, Amsterdam, Groningen to take the northern route along the water to Denmark.

So what do I have?

Nowhere near enough, in other words. All along the route its BKN, so no chance to go on top, either. Just to be sure, I've checked TAFs via Luxembourg/Frankfurt/Lubeck and via Amsterdam/Groningen/Roskilde. They're all the same: low broken clouds along with TCU, and deteriorating toward the evening and Sunday.

Eventually, you just have to get that the flying gods are telling you: Not today, buddy! So you ask them, Well, OK, but when, then?! I need to have some feeling that I will be able to take off sometime in the foreseeable future.

The next glimmer of hope is Monday. I don't want to get to excited, but I have to ask myself when I'm ever going to be able to get my plane home to Stockholm. I landed here last Wednesday, and this isn't funny any more!

/Brian

Epilog - And if there was any doubt about any chance today or tomorrow, here comes the amended TAF for Orly: