Looking good - LFPL to EDHL

OK, so now it looks good to get up to Lubeck. I've filed a block time 0800 to get out before the showers start here. Also gets me past Dusseldorf before they get rain (all according to the TAFs). I've got predicted ceilings min BKN020, that's here when I start, then BKN035 or better all along the route. No predicted high winds or rain while I'm flying, although they come later in the day. Not looking good in Sweden, however, so I'll stay the night in Lubeck.

This is what it looks like on the cloud cover forecast.

You can compare my route to the USAF surface analysis for the same time period. The break in the clouds goes right where I'll be flying.

Update 1015 LT - Sitting at Lognes, now. The BKN013 never materialized, but the TEMPO BKN006 with rain was right on time at 0900. I am not catching any breaks. Now I'm just monitoring Orly's METAR to see if I get 1000ft or better so I can take off. It still looks like it clears up north of Paris, so I just need to get out of here.

Update 1610 LT - It worked. On approach to Lubeck, the sky seemed clear. In reality, FEW014, Burt the evening sun was shining through. The start from Lognes was a touch dramatic, with a 1200 ft ceiling and rain decreasing visibility to the 5k minimum. As expected the ceiling held and then opened successively up toward the northeast. After I was handed off to Brussels info, I asked for and got FL65. Below me it was SCT and the upper layer was at 75 or so. That situation closed in on me a little more than I would like, but with the Auto and GPS, there's no need to panic, and it didn't last long (as the TAFs had predicted). Calling Langen info, I asked to come back down to 3500, and I could stay there until the Osnabruck VOR, when ceilings forced me back down to 1500 again. It is amazing, that the actual cloud cover I ran into followed the USAF surface analysis almost exactly (see above)! The weather guys are really good. I have learned to rely on the TAFs; not blindly, but the quality has held, for the most part. What this means in practice is that I never disregard a TAF if it is telling me something bad is going to happen. On the other hand, I do prepare alternatives in case the good predictions it makes don't turn out. It is so nice to be back in Lubeck. I love that airport; so uncomplicated. I was re-fueled and out of there within 30 minutes of landing, as usual. And Lubeck is a fine, little town.

/Brian